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时间:2021-10-07 22:43 来源: Essay代写

摘要:通胀永远是留学生经济学论文中研究的热点,稳定的通货膨胀和充分就业是任何中央银行日常工作的两个主要目标,......

荷兰assignment:货币经济学中通货膨胀能够降低失业率吗?


理论和政策

 

“失业和通货膨胀仍然盘踞着,困扰着经济学家、政治家、记者、家庭主妇、和其他人……”

 

通货膨胀——巴基斯坦的失业的权衡,发挥生产率和货币政策的作用 “s”

 

稳定的通货膨胀和充分就业是任何中央银行日常工作的两个主要目标,巴基斯坦国家银行的情况也是如此。通货膨胀被定义为“任何货币供给的增加大于硬币的增加”(罗斯巴德2004,p . 2004)。然而,为了方便起见,后者将被称为货币通货膨胀,并且通货膨胀的更一般的意义作为一种价格水平的上升将在整个讨论中使用。充分就业是指 “失业率等于自然失业率——当所有失业率是摩擦的和结构上的时,也没有周期性失业”这种情况。

 

研究的目的是为了观察巴基斯坦日益增加的通货膨胀情况是否与她目前的失业率有关。

 

Can inflation bring down unemployment in monetary economics

 

THEORY AND POLICY

 

”Unemployment and inflation still preoccupy and perplex economists, statesmen, journalists, housewives, and everyone else...”

 

INFLATION – UNEMPLOYMENT TRADE-OFF, NAIRU & ROLE OF MONETARY POLICY IN PAKISTAN “s”

 

Stable inflation and full employment is two main goals of any central bank’s agenda and so is the case with State Bank of Pakistan. Inflation is defined as “any increase in the money supply greater than an increase in specie” (Rothbard 2004, p. 1021). For the sake of convenience however, the latter will be referred to as monetary inflation and the more general meaning of inflation as a rise in the price level will be used throughout the discussion. Full employment is a situation which occurs when “the unemployment rate equals the natural rate of unemployment – when all unemployment is frictional and structural and there is no cyclical unemployment”.

 

The prospect of this study is to see whether or not the situation of Pakistan increasing inflation is related to her current rate of unemployment. In the past years, inflation is showing different trends, increasing and then decreasing. The highest, 13.0, was in FY 1994-95 and lowest, 3.1, in FY 2002-03. The effect, or not, of these trends on employment is to be studied, calculated and analyzed. For this purpose, we are going to use a delicate relationship between inflation and unemployment that was studied periodically by A. W. Phillips in 1958 and his followers.

 

PHILLIPS AND HIS CURVE:

 

The New Zealand economist Alban W. Phillips, in his 1958 paper "The relationship between unemployment and the rate of change of money wages in the UK 1861-1957" published in Economica, observed an inverse relationship between money wage changes and unemployment in the British economy over the period examined. From the observation, he found that one stable curve represented the trade-off between money wages and unemployment. Simply stated, the lower the unemployment in an economy, the higher the rate of change in wages paid to labor in that economy.

 

W. Phillips findings can be described briefly as

 

From data, he concluded that there is a trade-off between unemployment rate (U) and money wage inflation (W).

 

Trade-off has an anticlockwise loop. He found a non-linear negative relationship between W and U. In good times when unemployment is very low, money wage rate rises at a higher rate. On the other hand, in times of adversity, when unemployment is very high, money wage rate will change at a lower rate.

 

In 1960, economists Robert Solow and Paul Samuelson elaborated on Phillip’s model and made clear an explicit link between inflation and unemployment showing a typical Phillips curve that’s fitted to the data for the USA between the years 1961-69. Because average inflation was very low and close to zero during much of the period analyzed by Solow et al, wage setters assumed that (expected) inflation would equal zero, so equation was applicable. The variable st and ut refer to inflation and unemployment in year t respectively. While s and are constants that refer to the markup of prices over wages and a ‘catch-all’ variable, respectively. While s is a positive parameter that captures the effect on the inflation rate of the unemployment rate, given expected inflation (Blanchard & Sheen 2004).

 

What this means is that “given the expected price level, which workers simply take to be last year’s price level, unemployment leads to a higher nominal wage”. That higher wage subsequently leads to a higher price level ad infinitum. This is what’s known as the wage-price spiral (ibid). So it was postulated that an increase in inflation will be a permanent fixture if unemployment is to be reduced and so both have an inverse relationship. This is shown in the figure.

 

本文标签: 通货膨胀失业率货币经济学economics es

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