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摘要:本文布里斯托大学University of Bristol通过对心理需求和动机的考察,从结构化不确定性和非结构化不确定性分析了市场......

1is to know what we don't know) the old adage phrase reflects not only the production of new knowledge of the uncertainty, but the person for the unknown world of infinite pursuit.

1is to know what we don't know)这句古老格言反映的不仅仅是知识生产中新的不确定性,而是人对于未知世界无限的追求。

It is this nature of the achievements of the continuous progress of mankind for centuries. Until today's highly developed market economy, uncertainty remains on the progress of the whole society plays an important role. The principle which will attempt to explore further the rational use to promote economic development is of great significance.

正是这种本性成就了人类几个世纪不断的进步。直至市场经济高度发达的今天,不确定性依然对整个社会的进步发挥着重要作用。尝试探究其中的原理将对进一步合理利用从而促进经济发展有着重要意义。

One pair needs and motivations of inspection.

一对需求和动机的考察。

Mankind has always been the spirit of exploration and control desires, our ancestors in this uncertain world constantly discover and transform the environment, but also transform themselves. In modern society this uncertain economic environment remains the same, this seems to be human nature.

人类素来是具有探索精神和控制欲望的,我们的祖先在这个充满不确定性的世界里不断地发现和改造环境,同时也改造了自己。在现代社会这个充满不确定性的经济环境中依然如此,这似乎是人类的本性。

Uncertainty is generally considered object should escape more closely linked with risk and have a negative psychological effect. Indeed, the basic needs for security decisions people more dependent on the familiar things, controllable environmental factors to provide a stable mental state, thus ensuring the limited space to move freely in accordance with their wishes, but also release more The attention to the small new things to explore and pursuit. And this is not so much to explore and pursue the result of seeking safety, as it is the reason, people always tend to endlessly expand their awareness and control, but the process itself is also intertwined with people's desire for freedom of movement . Compared to a century ago that humans can influence and control of the area, and thus the field of freedom of movement has been greatly expanded.

 

It can be seen that human progress is not accidental. People always meet the basic security needs, has generated a higher level of demand for freedom of movement, and this part of the action itself is to continue to expand awareness and control areas, which in turn reinforces the sense of security, and in the process also gained self-realization of human satisfaction, and so on ad infinitum. It can be said, in a completely deterministic world, the results of any actions arising are so sure that people will lose all momentum.

 

Similarly, in the market environment, people avoid the uncertainty but also the pursuit of uncertainty, and its full of fantasy and hope. This motivation will become the market economy under the conditions of the main micro behavior of important factors.

 

Two uncertainties connotations.

 

When Keynes noted that the uncertainty of his time in the functioning of capitalism played a key role, he tried to distinguish between uncertainty and risk of these two concepts. Keynes, uncertainty is a state, in this state.

 

Individual actors found it impossible to choose a clear expected results give a reasonable probability (Keynes, 1937). In comparison, the risk can be calculated, therefore, in probability theory can match the range of risks is an ocean of uncertainty that can be controlled islands.

 

If the risk is the uncertainty in the likelihood of a negative event, then the corresponding, there is the possibility of a certain event, that derive revenue possible, but we can say that it is this part of the uncertainty in the market for the main micro The main source of excitation. However, this distinction seems to be difficult, in complex situations in which people are often difficult to determine the direction of development of the situation, or even to determine the positive or the general negative trend, which mixed a variety of unexpected events is obviously uncertainty is the greatest hazard lies, people's behavior will lose momentum or even completely stalled. So whether the end result is positive or negative, in the uncertainty occurs when the motives of human behavior is suppressed.

 

Another situation of uncertainty, are known to occur in the event, but can not determine the extent of its occurrence or assign a definite probability, which is equivalent to the uncertainty in defining a framework, or call within the corresponding rules, so that the parties may be required to deal with the situation more clearly. This uncertainty is more likely to trigger positive behavior under specific conditions motive, that the uncertainty of the market environment of the person generating incentives.

 

Thus, the former as unstructured uncertainty, and the latter is called structured uncertainty this classification seems appropriate.

 

Three actors on the market uncertainty arising from incentive effects analysis.

 

1. Structured uncertainty analysis.

 

本文标签: 结构

[罗切斯特 MBA Essay]布里斯托大学University of Bristol:不确定性激励与经济发展https://www.0592w.com/lunwengs/16012.html

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