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 Balance of Payments Policies: The Monetarist Approach国际收支政策:货币主义


The monetarist approach to the BOP began to take shape in the 1970s, although its roots go back muchfurther, and was part of a broader ‘revolution’ in economic theory which has by no means come to an end.
In part it reflected growing dissatisfaction with a macroeconomic apparatus which was stilldominated by Keynesian thinking and which was perceived to have failed to provide a satisfactoryexplanation for current problems. However, it also represented a change in thinking aboutmacroeconomic phenomena which in many respects returned to the classical tradition in economicthought.

The traditional approach [examined in the last two lectures] was based upon a macroeconomicframework which focused primarily on the short-run, where an economy need not gravitateautomatically to full employment, where both fixed exchange rates and sticky prices typicallyprevailed, and (except in the Mundell case) relatively little consideration was given to the analysis ofinternational capital movements. The BOP would, therefore, be brought back into equilibrium througha combination of automatic adjustment mechanisms based upon a synthesis of the elasticities approachand the absorption approach, together with a judicious selection of demand management policies bythe authorities.Monetarists, by contrast, concentrate more upon long-run problems. They tend to assume aneconomy which displays an in-built tendency towards full employment, price flexibility (including insome cases flexible exchange rates), and stress the importance of short-term international capitalmarkets for BOP analysis. Payments adjustment is seen through income or relative price changes,and policy would tend to reflect a more laissez-faire attitude on behalf of the authorities.Clearly, not all recent developments in BOP theory have been due to economists who might callthemselves monetarists, and it is as misleading to talk about the ‘monetarist model’ as it is to depictthe traditional synthesis as a monolithic representation of Keynesianism. Nonetheless, there arecertain key ideas associated with the monetarists revival which have an important bearing upon BOPtheory.Although the traditional approach did not ignore the role of money, since this was represented by theLM side of the analysis, monetarist believe that money should be the central focus of attention in BOPtheory. Instead of looking narrowly at the current account, monetarists want to look at the BOP as awhole in terms of an inflow or outflow of money. If you want to understand the BOP, they argue, thebest place to start is in the money market to see if there is any imbalance between supply and demand.如果你想了解BOP,他们认为,最好的地方是在货币市场,看看是否有任何的供应和需求之间的不平衡。

The monetarist perspective货币主义者的角度

The monetarist model of the BOP was developed by Marina Whitman, Jacob Frankel and HarryJohnson in the mid-1970s. However, the basic approach was largely influenced by, and its principalpropositions derived from, classical economic theory cultivated by David Hume. These historicalroots of the approach are briefly discussed before the modern model is outlined.

The first important insight which comes from the above analysis is to re-emphasise the links betweenthe trade balance and the domestic money supply which so intrigued the classical economist DavidHume as long ago as 1752. Hume questioned the macroeconomic basis of mercantilism. This was aschool of economic thought that developed in response to the growth of national mercantile economic,it attempted to discover the source of national wealth and the policies that would maximise it. It sawbullion as the prime measure of the wealth of a nation and advocated governmental action to increasethis store. The essence of the mercantile tradition was, therefore, in international trade. To increaseits store of bullion it was necessary for a country to enjoy a surplus in its balance of trade. To this endtariffs were imposed to protect domestic export industries and exclude foreign goods. Exports offinished goods were encouraged and cheap markets of raw materials were secured by the colonialsystem.Classical economists, following David Hume and Adam Smith, reviled the restrictive nature ofmercantilist doctrine, perceiving it as serving the self-interest of the merchant classes. Real wealth,they believed, was to equated with the full employment level of production of goods and services byshowing that a payments surplus would be self-defeating in the long-run, while a deficit would beautomatically eliminated as a result of the flow of gold between countries. Providing each countryfixed its exchange rate in terms of gold, and changes in the domestic money supply were linked togold reserves, then the inflow of gold into the surplus country would raise the aggregate price level(given the quantity theory of money) and eliminate the surplus. This would follow from the rise inthe price of exports and the fall in the price of imports. The reverse would happen in the deficitcountry.The importance of Hume’s analysis is that it stresses the links between the trade balance and domesticactivity through changes in the money supply unless the monetary authorities prevented it bysterilisation. Since if the change in reserves cannot be sterilised (as monetarists assume), it is afundamental proposition of the monetarists’ approach that a BOP disequilibrium is a temporaryphenomenon resulting from a stock imbalance in the money market which will ultimately be self-correcting. The importance of these monetary repercussions for the BOP marks the starting point ofthe monetarist approach to the BOP.

本文标签: 国际货币主义国际货币政策国际收支政策

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